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Thomas_Robert_Malthus
Population and Subsistence
“I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary, and will remain nearly in its present state... Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio... This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall somewhere; and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind... The germs of existence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room to expand in, would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years... Consequently, if the premises are just, the argument is conclusive against the perfectibility of the mass of mankind.”
- Source: Thomas Robert Malthus. The essay: “An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Goodwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers”. Originally published: 1798. Edition: First. Publisher: J. Johnson. Location: London, England. Chapter: 1. Retrieved From: <https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_Population>. Retrieval Date: 2024-04-03.
- Notes: The dire predictions of Malthus have not yet been fulfilled. This is primarily due to errors in his initial assumptions (which are properly identified), not in errors in his logic. The first assumption (or postulatum) is that food production increases arithmetically (linearly). But historically, food production has increased geometrically (exponentially) due to advances in mechanical technologies and biotechnologies. The second assumption assumes passion and birth rates are directly correlated. However, technological advances in birth control, cultural advances in women's rights, and rising prosperity (which lowers birth rates) have falsified this assumption. Additional questionable assumptions are also made which are not initially specified.
- See Also:
- Keywords: Think_quotes Fair_quotes Assumption_quotes Postulate_quotes Food_quotes Existence_quotes Passion_quotes Sex_quotes Man_quotes Woman_quotes Remain_quotes Grant_quotes Power_quotes Population_quotes Indefinite_quotes Greater_quotes Earth_quotes World_quotes Production_quotes Subsistence_quotes Uncheck_quotes Increase_quotes Geometric_quotes Exponential_quotes Ratio_quotes Arithmetic_quotes Linear_quotes Imply_quotes Strong_quotes Constant_quotes Operate_quotes Check_quotes Difficult_quotes Fall_quotes Necessary_quotes Severe_quotes Feel_quotes Large_quotes Portion_quotes Mankind_quotes Humanity_quotes Germ_quotes Contain_quotes Spot_quotes Ample_quotes Room_quotes Expand_quotes Fill_quotes Course_quotes Few_quotes Thousand_quotes Year_quotes Premises_quotes Argument_quotes Consequence_quotes Conclusive_quotes Against_quotes Perfectibility_quotes Mass_quotes Hunger_quotes Starvation_quotes Malthusian_quotes
Ascher_Opler
Spot the Lemon Early
“In managing software projects the real problem is ‘spot the lemon and spot the lemon early’.”
- Source: Ascher Opler in a report entitled Software Engineering: Report of a Conference Sponsored by the NATO Science Committee. Chaired by Friedrich Ludwig Bauer. Edited by P. Naur; B. Randell. Conference held 1968-10-07 through 1968-10-11 in Garmisch, Germany. OCLC: 35337842. See http://homepages.cs.ncl.ac.uk/brian.randell/NATO/index.html ; http://homepages.cs.ncl.ac.uk/brian.randell/NATO/nato1968.PDF ; https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1102020 ; https://books.google.com/books/about/Software_engineering.html?id=Uc9QAAAAYAAJ . Page 50.
