Probability quotes

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Jim_Baggott

The Veracity Principle

“The Veracity Principle. It is not possible to verify a scientific theory such that it provides absolute certainty for all time. A theory is instead accepted (or even tolerated), on the basis of its ability to survive the tests and meet additional criteria of simplicity, efficacy, utility, explanatory power and less rational, innately human measures such as beauty. Over time the theory becomes familiar and is accepted as ‘true’ or, at least, as possessing a high truth-likeness or verisimilitude. The scientists’ confidence or degree of belief in the theory grows. It is eventually absorbed into the common body of knowledge which forms the current ‘authorized’ version of empirical reality.”
  • Source: Baggott, Jim. Farewell to Reality: How Modern Physics Has Betrayed the Search for Scientific Truth (p. 22). Pegasus Books. New York, NY.
Keywords: Veracity_quotes Verification_quotes Principle_quotes Science_quotes Theory_quotes Certainty_quotes Acceptance_quotes Tolerance_quotes Ability_quotes Survival_quotes Simplicity_quotes Efficacy_quotes Utility_quotes Explanation_quotes Power_quotes Rational_quotes Human_quotes Measurement_quotes Beauty_quotes Time_quotes Truth_quotes Probability_quotes Likelihood_quotes Verisimilitude_quotes Confidence_quotes Belief_quotes Knowledge_quotes Authority_quotes Empirical_quotes Reality_quotes

Robert_N_Britcher

Failure Probability

“The probability of a failure in a computer system is never zero. There are always failures - if not evident, then latent.”
  • Source: Britcher, Robert N. (1999). The Limits of Software: People, Projects, and Perspectives. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley. ISBN 0-201-43323-0. Page 61.
Keywords: Probability_quotes Failure_quotes Computer_quotes System_quotes Latency_quotes Zero_quotes Evident_quotes

Edward_Bulwer-Lytton

Fate and Probabilities

"Fate laughs at probabilities."
  • Source: Edward Bulwer-Lytton, Eugene Aram (1832), Book i, Chapter x.
Keywords: Fate_quotes Laughter_quotes Probability_quotes Statistics_quotes

Tom_DeMarco and Tim_Lister

Project Failures

"We observe that about 15 percent of all projects studied came to naught: They were canceled or aborted or 'postponed' or they delivered products that were never used. For bigger projects, the odds are even worse. Fully 25 percent of projects that lasted 25 work-years or more failed to complete. In the early surveys, we discarded these failed data points and analyzed the others. Since 1979, though, we’ve been contacting whoever is left of the project staff to find out what went wrong. For the overwhelming majority of the bankrupt projects we studied, there was not a single technological issue to explain the failure."
  • Source: Book:: Entitled: Peopleware: Productive Projects and Teams. Edition: 3rd. Written by: Tom DeMarco; Tim Lister. Date published: 1987; 1999; 2013. Publisher: Addison-Wesley. Country: USA; GBR; CAN; DEU; FRA; ESP; ZAF; AUS; JPN; SGP; MEX. Language: en. ISBN: ISBN-13: 978-0-321-93411-6 (alk paper); 0-321-93411-3 (alk paper). Chapter: 1 (Somewhere Today, a Project Is Failing).
Keywords: Observation_quotes Project_quotes Failure_quotes Abort_quotes Postponement_quotes Unused_quotes Big_quotes Probability_quotes Work_quotes Effort_quotes Bankruptcy_quotes Technology_quotes Cancel_quotes Deliver_quotes Odds_quotes Complete_quotes Survey_quotes Discard_quotes Analyze_quotes Contact_quotes Majority_quotes Bankrupt_quotes Explain_quotes

English_Proverbs

Like a Duck

“If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.”
  • Source: The exact origin of the phrase is uncertain.
Keywords: Look_quotes Duck_quotes Swim_quotes Quack_quotes Probability_quotes Reason_quotes Abductive_quotes

Richard_Feynman

Same Circumstances

“Philosophers have said that if the same circumstances don't always produce the same results, predictions are impossible and science will collapse. Here is a circumstance — identical photons are always coming down in the same direction to the piece of glass — that produces different results. We cannot predict whether a given photon will arrive at A or B. All we can predict is that out of 100 photons that come down, an average of 4 will be reflected by the front surface. Does this mean that physics, a science of great exactitude, has been reduced to calculating only the probability of an event, and not predicting exactly what will happen? Yes. That's a retreat, but that's the way it is: Nature permits us to calculate only probabilities. Yet science has not collapsed.”
  • Source: Feynman, R. P. (1983). QED: The Strange Theory of Light and Matter. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Page 19.
Keywords: Philosophy_quotes Circumstance_quotes Repeatability_quotes Prediction_quotes Science_quotes Impossibility_quotes Collapse_quotes Photon_quotes Glass_quotes Result_quotes Materialism_quotes Causality_quotes Calculation_quotes Probability_quotes Produce_quotes Same_quotes Circumstance_quotes Identical_quotes Direction_quotes Average_quotes Reflect_quotes Surface_quotes Physics_quotes Exactitude_quotes Reduce_quotes

Henry_Ford

Thinking is Hard

“Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it.”
  • Source: As quoted in The High School Teacher, Vol. XI (1935), p. 60.
Keywords: Thinking_quotes Hard_quotes Difficulty_quotes Probability_quotes Reason_quotes Work_quotes Few_quotes

Stephen_Hawking

Indefinite Past

“In classical physics, the past is assumed to exist as a definite series of events, but according to quantum physics, the past, like the future, is indefinite and exists only as a spectrum of possibilities. Even the universe as a whole has no single past or history.”
  • Source: Hawking & Mlodinow, Scientific American, October 2010.
Keywords: Classical_quotes Physics_quotes Past_quotes Series_quotes Quantum_quotes Future_quotes Indefinite_quotes Existence_quotes Spectrum_quotes Possibility_quotes Probability_quotes Universe_quotes History_quotes Multiverse_quotes Assume_quotes Event_quotes

Robert_Heinlein

Tomorrow

“Never do today what you can put off till tomorrow if tomorrow might improve the odds.”.
  • Source: Written by Robert A. Heinlein in the book “Time Enough for Love”, published in 1973 by Putnam's Sons, ISBN: 0-399-11151-4. ISBN: 9781101503072 (ebook). Page 346 (Kindle edition).
Keywords: Never_quotes Do_quotes Today_quotes Put_quotes Off_quotes Tomorrow_quotes Improve_quotes Odds_quotes Probability_quotes

David_Kipping

Bayesian Sims

“Using Bayesian model averaging, it is shown that the probability that we are sims is in fact less than 50%.”
  • Source: David Kipping from the paper “A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument”, published 2020 in the journal ‘Universe’, volume 6, issue 8. DOI:10.3390/universe6080109. Online at https://www.mdpi.com/2218-1997/6/8/109 (2025).
Keywords: Bayesian_quotes Model_quotes Average_quotes Show_quotes Probability_quotes Sim_quotes Simulation_quotes Fact_quotes Less_quotes

Alexander_Kossiakoff et al.

Skeptical Positive Thinking

"The Power of Skeptical Positive Thinking... is meant to capture an important characteristic of successful systems engineering. The skeptical part is important to temper the traditional optimism of the design specialist regarding the probability of success of a chosen design approach. It is the driving force for the insistence of validation of the approach selected at the earliest possible opportunity. The other dimension of skepticism, which is directly related to the characteristic of positive thinking, refers to the reaction in the face of failure or apparent failure of a selected technique or design approach. Many design specialists who encounter an unexpected failure are plunged into despair. The systems engineer, on the other hand, cannot afford the luxury of hand wringing."
  • Source:Kossiakoff, Alexander; Sweet, William N.; Seymour, Samuel J.; Biemer, Steven M.. 'Systems Engineering Principles and Practice'. 2011. Wiley. Kindle Edition. Section 1.6 page 23.
Keywords: Power_quotes Skepticism_quotes Positive_quotes Thinking_quotes Importance_quotes Success_quotes System_quotes Engineering_quotes Optimism_quotes Design_quotes Specialization_quotes Probability_quotes Validation_quotes Early_quotes Opportunity_quotes Failure_quotes Despair_quotes Luxury_quotes Characteristic_quotes Drive_quotes Force_quotes Insist_quotes Approach_quotes Select_quotes Dimension_quotes Direct_quotes Relate_quotes Reaction_quotes Face_quotes Apparent_quotes Technique_quotes Encounter_quotes Unexpected_quotes Plunge_quotes Afford_quotes Hand_quotes Wring_quotes

Pierre-Simon_Laplace

System of Nature

“The present state of the system of nature is evidently a consequence of what it was in the preceding moment, and if we conceive of an intelligence that at a given instant comprehends all the relations of the entities of this universe, it could state the respective position, motions, and general affects of all these entities at any time in the past or future. Physical astronomy, the branch of knowledge that does the greatest honor to the human mind, gives us an idea, albeit imperfect, of what such an intelligence would be. The simplicity of the law by which the celestial bodies move, and the relations of their masses and distances, permit analysis to follow their motions up to a certain point; and in order to determine the state of the system of these great bodies in past or future centuries, it suffices for the mathematician that their position and their velocity be given by observation for any moment in time. Man owes that advantage to the power of the instrument he employs, and to the small number of relations that it embraces in its calculations. But ignorance of the different causes involved in the production of events, as well as their complexity, taken together with the imperfection of analysis, prevents our reaching the same certainty about the vast majority of phenomena. Thus there are things that are uncertain for us, things more or less probable, and we seek to compensate for the impossibility of knowing them by determining their different degrees of likelihood. So it was that we owe to the weakness of the human mind one of the most delicate and ingenious of mathematical theories, the science of chance or probability.”
  • Source: Pierre-Simon Laplace, 'Recherches, 1º, sur l'Intégration des Équations Différentielles aux Différences Finies, et sur leur Usage dans la Théorie des Hasards' (1773, published 1776). In Oeuvres complètes de Laplace, 14 Vols. (1843-1912), Vol. 8, 144-5, trans. Charles Coulston Gillispie, Pierre-Simon Laplace 1749-1827: A Life in Exact Science (1997), 26.
Keywords: State_quotes Present_quotes System_quotes Nature_quotes Consequence_quotes Moment_quotes Precede_quotes Conceive_quotes Intelligence_quotes Instant_quotes Comprehension_quotes Relationship_quotes Universe_quotes Position_quotes Motion_quotes Causality_quotes Time_quotes Past_quotes Future_quotes Astronomy_quotes Knowledge_quotes Humanity_quotes Mind_quotes Idea_quotes Imperfect_quotes Law_quotes Celestial_quotes Body_quotes Mass_quotes Distance_quotes Analysis_quotes Determine_quotes Century_quotes Mathematics_quotes Velocity_quotes Observation_quotes Advantage_quotes Power_quotes Instrument_quotes Calculation_quotes Ignorance_quotes Cause_quotes Production_quotes Event_quotes Complexity_quotes Certainty_quotes Majority_quotes Phenomena_quotes Probability_quotes Impossibility_quotes Likelihood_quotes Weakness_quotes Theory_quotes Chance_quotes

Problems of Probability

“The most important questions of life... are indeed for the most part only problems of probability. Strictly speaking it may even be said that nearly all our knowledge is problematical; and in the small number of things which we are able to know with certainty, even in the mathematical sciences themselves, the principal means for ascertaining truth — induction and analogy — are based on probabilities.”
Keywords: Important_quotes Question_quotes Life_quotes Part_quotes Problem_quotes Probability_quotes Near_quotes Knowledge_quotes Problematical_quotes Small_quotes Number_quotes Thing_quotes Ability_quotes Certainty_quotes Mathematics_quotes Science_quotes Principal_quotes Mean_quotes Ascertain_quotes Truth_quotes Induction_quotes Analogy_quotes Base_quotes

Steven_Pinker

Computational Mind Probabilistic

“The computational theory thus embraces an alternative kind of computer with many elements that are active to a degree corresponding to the probability that some statement is true or false, and in which the activity levels change smoothly to register new and roughly accurate probabilities. (As we shall see, that may be the way the brain works.) The key idea is that the answer to the question 'What makes a system smart?' is not the kind of stuff it is made of or the kind of energy flowing through it, but what the parts of the machine stand for and how the patterns of changes inside it are designed to mirror truth-preserving relationships (including probabilistic and fuzzy truths).”
  • Source: Steven Pinker (1997). How the Mind Works. New York, NY: W. W. Norton. ISBN 978-0-393-06973-0; eISBN 978-0-393-06973-0. Chapter 2 Section: The search for Intelligent Life in the Universe.
Keywords: Computation_quotes Theory_quotes Embrace_quotes Alternative_quotes Kind_quotes Computer_quotes Element_quotes Activity_quotes Degree_quotes Correspondence_quotes Probability_quotes Statement_quotes True_quotes False_quotes Level_quotes Change_quotes Smooth_quotes Register_quotes Rough_quotes Accuracy_quotes Sight_quotes Way_quotes Brain_quotes Work_quotes Key_quotes Idea_quotes Answer_quotes Question_quotes System_quotes Smart_quotes Stuff_quotes Energy_quotes Flow_quotes Part_quotes Machine_quotes Stand_quotes Pattern_quotes Inside_quotes Design_quotes Mirror_quotes Fuzzy_quotes Truth_quotes Preservation_quotes Mind_quotes

Hans_Reichenbach

Picture of Scientific Method

“The picture of scientific method drafted by modern philosophy is very different from traditional conceptions. Gone is the ideal of a universe whose course follows strict rules, a predetermined cosmos that unwinds itself like an unwinding clock. Gone is the ideal of the scientist who knows the absolute truth. The happenings of nature are like rolling dice rather than like revolving stars; they are controlled by probability laws, not by causality, and the scientist resembles a gambler more than a prophet. He can tell you only his best posits — he never knows beforehand whether they will come true. He is a better gambler, though, than the man at the green table, because his statistical methods are superior. And his goal is staked higher — the goal of foretelling the rolling dice of the cosmos. If he is asked why he follows his methods, with what title he makes his predictions, he cannot answer that he has an irrefutable knowledge of the future; he can only lay his best bets. But he can prove that they are best bets, that making them is the best he can do — and if a man does his best, what else can you ask of him?”
  • Source: Hans Reichenbach, The Rise of Scientific Philosophy (1951, 1973), 248-9. Collected in James Louis Jarrett and Sterling M. McMurrin (eds.), Contemporary Philosophy: A Book of Readings (1954), 376.
Keywords: Picture_quotes Scientific_Method_quotes Modern_quotes Philosophy_quotes Differences_quotes Tradition_quotes Ideal_quotes Universe_quotes Causality_quotes Course_quotes Strict_quotes Rule_quotes Predetermine_quotes Cosmos_quotes Unwind_quotes Clock_quotes Science_quotes Absolute_quotes Certainty_quotes Truth_quotes Nature_quotes Roll_quotes Dice_quotes Probability_quotes Revolve_quotes Star_quotes Control_quotes Law_quotes Gambler_quotes Prophet_quotes Prediction_quotes Posit_quotes Knowledge_quotes Beforehand_quotes True_quotes Statistics_quotes Superior_quotes Goal_quotes Stake_quotes High_quotes Foretell_quotes Methodology_quotes Title_quotes Answer_quotes Irrefutability_quotes Future_quotes Bet_quotes Proof_quotes Best_quotes Ask_quotes Conception_quotes Scientist_quotes Man_quotes

Bertrand_Russell

Exact Science Approximate

“Although this may seem a paradox, all exact science is dominated by the idea of approximation. When a man tells you that he knows the exact truth about anything, you are safe in inferring that he is an inexact man. Every careful measurement in science is always given with the probable error ... every observer admits that he is likely wrong and knows about how much wrong he is likely to be.”
  • Source: Bertrand Russell, In The Scientific Outlook (1931, 2009), 42
Keywords: Paradox_quotes Seem_quotes Exact_quotes Science_quotes Domination_quotes Idea_quotes Approximation_quotes Humanity_quotes Truth_quotes Safe_quotes Inference_quotes Inexact_quotes Careful_quotes Measurement_quotes Probability_quotes Error_quotes Observation_quotes Wrong_quotes Knowledge_quotes Man_quotes

Rational Man

“Thus the rational man, who attaches to each proposition the right degree of credibility, will be guided by the mathematical theory of probability when it is applicable.”
  • Source: Russell, B. (1948). Human Knowledge: Its Scope and Limits. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster. Part V Chap. 6.
Keywords: Reason_quotes Humanity_quotes Man_quotes Attach_quotes Proposal_quotes Right_quotes Degree_quotes Credibility_quotes Guide_quotes Mathematics_quotes Theory_quotes Probability_quotes Application_quotes

Herbert_Simon

Long Definition of Design

“The ‘inner environment' of the design problem is represented by a set of given alternatives of action. The alternatives may be given in extenso: more commonly they are specified in terms of command variables that have defined domains. The ‘outer environment' is represented by a set of parameters, which may be known with certainty or only in terms of a probability distribution. The goals for adaptation of inner to outer environment are defined by a utility function a function, usually scalar, of the command variables and environmental parameters perhaps supplemented by a number of constraints (inequalities, say, between functions of the command variables and environmental parameters). The optimization problem is to find an admissible set of values of the command variables, compatible with the constraints, that maximize the utility function for the given values of the environmental parameters. (In the probabilistic case we might say, 'maximize the expected value of the utility function,' for instance, instead of 'maximize the utility function.')”
Keywords: Inner_quotes Environment_quotes Design_quotes Problem_quotes Representation_quotes Set_quotes Alternative_quotes Action_quotes Extenso_quotes Common_quotes Specification_quotes Term_quotes Command_quotes Variable_quotes Definition_quotes Domain_quotes Outer_quotes Parameter_quotes Knowledge_quotes Certainty_quotes Probability_quotes Distribution_quotes Goal_quotes Adaptation_quotes Utility_quotes Function_quotes Scalar_quotes Supplement_quotes Number_quotes Constraint_quotes Maximum_quotes Value_quotes Compatibility_quotes Case_quotes Expectation_quotes Inequality_quotes Optimization_quotes Admissible_quotes

Ellis_Leon_Yochelson

Scientists Make Predictions

“Scientists are supposed to make predictions, probably to prove they are human and can be as mistaken as anyone else. Long-range predictions are better to make because the audience to whom the prediction was made is no longer around to ask questions. The alternative... is to make conflicting predictions, so that one prediction may prove right.”
  • Source: Ellis Leon Yochelson. 'Fossils—The How and Why of Collecting and Storing', Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washington (1969), 82, 597.
Keywords: Scientist_quotes Science_quotes Suppose_quotes Prediction_quotes Probability_quotes Proof_quotes Human_quotes Mistake_quotes Anyone_quotes Long_quotes Range_quotes Better_quotes Make_quotes Audience_quotes Ask_quotes Question_quotes Alternative_quotes Conflict_quotes Right_quotes
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