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Richard_Feynman
Cargo Cult
“...there have been many experiments running rats through all kinds of mazes, and so on — with little clear result. But in 1937 a man named Young did a very interesting one. He had a long corridor with doors all along one side where the rats came in, and doors along the other side where the food was. He wanted to see if he could train rats to go to the third door down from wherever he started them off. No. The rats went immediately to the door where the food had been the time before. The question was, how did the rats know, because the corridor was so beautifully built and so uniform, that this was the same door as before? Obviously there was something about the door that was different from the other doors. So he painted the doors very carefully, arranging the textures on the faces of the doors exactly the same. Still the rats could tell. Then he thought maybe they were smelling the food, so he used chemicals to change the smell after each run. Still the rats could tell. Then he realized the rats might be able to tell by seeing the lights and the arrangement in the laboratory like any commonsense person. So he covered the corridor, and still the rats could tell. He finally found that they could tell by the way the floor sounded when they ran over it. And he could only fix that by putting his corridor in sand. So he covered one after another of all possible clues and finally was able to fool the rats so that they had to learn to go to the third door. If he relaxed any of his conditions, the rats could tell. Now, from a scientific standpoint, that is an A-number-one experiment. That is the experiment that makes rat-running experiments sensible, because it uncovers the clues that the rat is really using — not what you think it's using. And that is the experiment that tells exactly what conditions you have to use in order to be careful and control everything in an experiment with rat-running. I looked into the subsequent history of this research. The next experiment, and the one after that, never referred to Mr. Young. They never used any of his criteria of putting the corridor on sand, or of being very careful. They just went right on running rats in the same old way, and paid no attention to the great discoveries of Mr. Young, and his papers are not referred to, because he didn't discover anything about rats. In fact, he discovered all the things you have to do to discover something about rats. But not paying attention to experiments like that is a characteristic of cargo cult science.”
- Source: "Cargo Cult Science", adapted from a 1974 Caltech commencement address; also published in Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!, p. 345.
- Feynman, R. P. (1974). In Feynman, R. P. (1974, June). Cargo Cult Science. Science and Engineering.
- Keywords: Cargo_quotes Cult_quotes Experiment_quotes Rat_quotes Maze_quotes Result_quotes Door_quotes Smell_quotes Sight_quotes Sound_quotes Clue_quotes Control_quotes Attention_quotes Ignore_quotes Ignorance_quotes Discovery_quotes Corridor_quotes Food_quotes Train_quotes Immediate_quotes Time_quotes Question_quotes Know_quotes Uniform_quotes Obvious_quotes Different_quotes Paint_quotes Arrange_quotes Texture_quotes Face_quotes Think_quotes Chemical_quotes Change_quotes Run_quotes Realize_quotes Light_quotes Laboratory_quotes Common_quotes Sense_quotes Person_quotes Cover_quotes Floor_quotes Fool_quotes Relax_quotes Condition_quotes Science_quotes Standpoint_quotes Uncover_quotes Careful_quotes Look_quotes History_quotes Research_quotes Refer_quotes Criteria_quotes Sand_quotes Old_quotes Fact_quotes Characteristic_quotes
Joseph_Heller
Lousy Earth
“What a lousy earth! He wondered how many people were destitute that same night even in his own prosperous country, how many homes were shanties, how many husbands were drunk and wives socked, and how many children were bullied, abused or abandoned. How many families hungered for food they could not afford to buy? How many hearts were broken? How many suicides would take place that same night, how many people would go insane? How many cockroaches and landlords would triumph? How many winners were losers, successes failures, rich men poor men? How many wise guys were stupid? How many happy endings were unhappy endings? How many honest men were liars, brave men cowards, loyal men traitors, how many sainted men were corrupt, how many people in positions of trust had sold their souls to blackguards for petty cash, how many had never had souls? How many straight-and-narrow paths were crooked paths? How many best families were worst families and how many good people were bad people? When you added them all up and then subtracted, you might be left with only the children, and perhaps with Albert Einstein and an old violinist or sculptor somewhere.”
- Source: Heller, Joseph. 'Catch-22: 50th Anniversary Edition'. Chapter 39 'The Eternal City', page 483. Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition.
- Keywords: Lousy_quotes Earth_quotes Wonder_quotes People_quotes Destitute_quotes Night_quotes Country_quotes Home_quotes Shanty_quotes Husband_quotes Drunk_quotes Wife_quotes Socked_quotes Children_quotes Bully_quotes Abuse_quotes Abandoned_quotes Family_quotes Hungry_quotes Food_quotes Afford_quotes Buy_quotes Heart_quotes Broken_quotes Suicide_quotes Insanity_quotes Cockroach_quotes Landlord_quotes Triumph_quotes Win_quotes Lose_quotes Success_quotes Failure_quotes Rich_quotes Poor_quotes Men_quotes Wise_quotes Stupid_quotes Happy_quotes Ending_quotes Honest_quotes Liar_quotes Brave_quotes Coward_quotes Loyal_quotes Traitor_quotes Saint_quotes Corrupt_quotes Position_quotes Trust_quotes Sell_quotes Soul_quotes Blackguards_quotes Petty_quotes Cash_quotes Straight_quotes Narrow_quotes Crooked_quotes Path_quotes Good_quotes Bad_quotes Addition_quotes Subtraction_quotes Einstein(topic)_quotes Old_quotes Violin_quotes Sculptor_quotes
Thomas_Robert_Malthus
Population and Subsistence
“I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary, and will remain nearly in its present state... Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio... This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall somewhere; and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind... The germs of existence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room to expand in, would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years... Consequently, if the premises are just, the argument is conclusive against the perfectibility of the mass of mankind.”
- Source: Thomas Robert Malthus. The essay: “An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Goodwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers”. Originally published: 1798. Edition: First. Publisher: J. Johnson. Location: London, England. Chapter: 1. Retrieved From: <https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_Population>. Retrieval Date: 2024-04-03.
- Notes: The dire predictions of Malthus have not yet been fulfilled. This is primarily due to errors in his initial assumptions (which are properly identified), not in errors in his logic. The first assumption (or postulatum) is that food production increases arithmetically (linearly). But historically, food production has increased geometrically (exponentially) due to advances in mechanical technologies and biotechnologies. The second assumption assumes passion and birth rates are directly correlated. However, technological advances in birth control, cultural advances in women's rights, and rising prosperity (which lowers birth rates) have falsified this assumption. Additional questionable assumptions are also made which are not initially specified.
- See Also:
- Keywords: Think_quotes Fair_quotes Assumption_quotes Postulate_quotes Food_quotes Existence_quotes Passion_quotes Sex_quotes Man_quotes Woman_quotes Remain_quotes Grant_quotes Power_quotes Population_quotes Indefinite_quotes Greater_quotes Earth_quotes World_quotes Production_quotes Subsistence_quotes Uncheck_quotes Increase_quotes Geometric_quotes Exponential_quotes Ratio_quotes Arithmetic_quotes Linear_quotes Imply_quotes Strong_quotes Constant_quotes Operate_quotes Check_quotes Difficult_quotes Fall_quotes Necessary_quotes Severe_quotes Feel_quotes Large_quotes Portion_quotes Mankind_quotes Humanity_quotes Germ_quotes Contain_quotes Spot_quotes Ample_quotes Room_quotes Expand_quotes Fill_quotes Course_quotes Few_quotes Thousand_quotes Year_quotes Premises_quotes Argument_quotes Consequence_quotes Conclusive_quotes Against_quotes Perfectibility_quotes Mass_quotes Hunger_quotes Starvation_quotes Malthusian_quotes
Daniel_H_Pink
Motivation 1.0
“In our very early days — I mean very early days, say, fifty thousand years ago — the underlying assumption about human behavior was simple and true. We were trying to survive. From roaming the Savannah to gather food to scrambling for the bushes when a saber-toothed tiger approached, that drive guided most of our behavior. Call this early operating system Motivation 1.0.”
- Source: Daniel H. Pink (2009). Drive. New York, NY: Riverhead Books. ISBN 9781101524381. Chapter 1.
- Keywords: Motivation_quotes Early_quotes Day_quotes Year_quotes Underlie_quotes Assumption_quotes Human_quotes Behavior_quotes Simplicity_quotes True_quotes Try_quotes Survival_quotes Roam_quotes Savannah_quotes Gather_quotes Food_quotes Scramble_quotes Bush_quotes Saber-Tooth_quotes Tiger_quotes Approach_quotes Drive_quotes Guide_quotes Operating_System_quotes Prehistoric_quotes
Gerald_Weinberg
Knowledge Came Slowly
“In ages past, the knowledge came very slowly, and one man in his life was not likely to see much change other than that wrought by nature. The controlled incorporation of arsenic into copper to make bronze took several thousand years to develop; the substitution of tin for the more dangerous arsenic took another thousand or two. In our modern age, laboratories turn out an alloy a day, or more, with properties made to order. The alloying of metals led to the rise and fall of civilizations, but the changes were too slow to be appreciated. A truer blade meant victory over the invaders, but changes were local and slow enough to be absorbed by a million tiny adjustments without destroying the species. With an alloy a day, we can no longer be sure. Science and engineering have been the catalysts for the unprecedented speed and magnitude of change. The physicist shows us how to harness the power of the nucleus; the chemist shows us how to increase the quantity of our food; the geneticist shows us how to improve the quality of our children. But science and engineering have been unable to keep pace with the second-order effects produced by their first-order victories. The excess heat from the nuclear generator alters the spawning pattern of fish, and, before adjustments can be made, other species have produced irreversible changes in the ecology of the river and its borders. The pesticide eliminates one insect only to the advantage of others that may be worse, or the herbicide clears the rain forest for farming, but the resulting soil changes make the land less productive than it was before. And of what we are doing to our progeny, we still have only ghastly hints. Some have said the general systems movement was born out of the failures of science, but it would be more accurate to say the general systems approach is needed because science has been such a success. Science and technology have colonized the planet, and nothing in our lives is untouched. In this changing, they have revealed a complexity with which they are not prepared to deal. The general systems movement has taken up the task of helping scientists unravel complexity, technologists to master it, and others to learn to live with it.”
- Source: Weinberg, Gerald (2011-04-07). An Introduction to General Systems Thinking (Kindle Locations 264-267). Weinberg & Weinberg. Kindle Edition.
- Keywords: History_quotes Knowledge_quotes Slow_quotes Humanity_quotes Life_quotes Change_quotes Nature_quotes Arsenic_quotes Copper_quotes Bronze_quotes Technology_quotes Tin_quotes Metal_quotes Laboratory_quotes Property_quotes On_Demand_quotes Rise_quotes Fall_quotes Civilization_quotes Appreciation_quotes Victory_quotes Blade_quotes Invader_quotes Adjustment_quotes Species_quotes Science_quotes Engineering_quotes Catalyst_quotes Speed_quotes Physics_quotes Chemistry_quotes Food_quotes Genetics_quotes Quality_quotes Children_quotes Effect_quotes Heat_quotes Fish_quotes Irreversible_quotes Ecology_quotes River_quotes Pesticide_quotes Insect_quotes Herbicide_quotes Forest_quotes Farming_quotes Soil_quotes Productivity_quotes Progeny_quotes System_quotes Failure_quotes Accuracy_quotes Colonize_quotes Planet_quotes Earth_quotes Complexity_quotes Preparation_quotes Man_quotes Nucleus_quotes Quantity_quotes Second-order_quotes First-order_quotes Nuclear_quotes Generator_quotes Alter_quotes Spawn_quotes Pattern_quotes Border_quotes Eliminate_quotes Advantage_quotes Worse_quotes Rain_quotes Land_quotes Ghastly_quotes Hint_quotes General_quotes Approach_quotes Success_quotes Accurate_quotes Say_quotes Untouch_quotes Reveal_quotes Master_quotes Learn_quotes
